The future rarely arrives as a surprise.

More often, it has been showing itself to us for quite a while. A change in regulation here. A new technology there. A shift in customer expectations or investment somewhere else. On their own, these developments may not seem particularly important.

But start connecting them and a different picture emerges.

We live in a world with no shortage of information. Leaders have access to extraordinary amounts of data, analysis and expertise. And yet the decisions that matter most can still be remarkably difficult.

I don't think the problem is usually a lack of information.

The harder part is figuring out what matters — and how seemingly unrelated developments may be connected.

Markets influence policy. Policy redirects investment. Technology changes demand for resources. Geopolitical events redraw supply chains. Customer expectations influence product design and material choices. Those choices, in turn, can eventually shape regulation.

Nothing happens entirely on its own.

Over more than three decades, my work has taken me through industries and issues that don't necessarily look connected: consumer technology, advanced manufacturing, agriculture, global supply chains, environmental policy, defense, recycling and the circular economy.

One of the advantages of moving between those worlds is that you begin to notice when something you've seen before shows up in a different form.

A regulatory development in one industry can foreshadow what another will face several years later. A technology developed to solve one problem can unexpectedly change the economics of another. A seemingly minor shift in materials or supply chains can eventually alter product strategy, investment decisions or public policy.

You don't have to predict the future perfectly to benefit from seeing those connections.

You just have to notice them early enough to have choices.

That, to me, is the value of context.

It isn't simply background information. Context helps us understand why something matters, what else it may be connected to and what it might set in motion.

And sometimes the most important signal isn't the loudest one.

It's the small change happening somewhere else that, at first, doesn't appear to have anything to do with you.